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GDP next year is expected to increase 6-6.5%

Given that the economy in 2022 is subject to many risks and challenges from the impact of Covid-19, the Government still sets a target of next year’s GDP growth of 6-6.5%.

This goal was stated by the Government in the report on socio-economic development plan for 2022, dated October 12.

Under the authorization to present the report, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said that, although facing the serious impact of the global crisis in terms of health, economy and society for the first time, the economic The macro economy remained stable in the first 9 months of this year.

However, 4 out of 12 targets have not been achieved. Economic growth in the first 6 months of the year reached 5.64% compared to the same period in 2020, and the 4th outbreak had a serious impact when the growth in the third quarter decreased by 6.17%, dragging the GDP growth rate. 9 months only reached 1.42%.

Mr. Dung also said that the macro economy still has some potential risks; inflation pressure increases; export deceleration. “There was a situation of disruption in some production and supply chains; the circulation of goods was sometimes blocked in some places. Financial markets, real estate, and securities had hot times.” Minister of Planning and Investment commented.

It is expected that growth for the whole year will be at 3-3.5% depending on the country’s ability to open up, but these are all very difficult indicators to achieve.

About the projected socio-economic development plan in 2022Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said that the Government set out 16 key indicators in the fields of economy, society and environment. In which, GDP growth rate is about 6-6.5%; Average CPI is about 4%; State budget deficit is about 4% of GDP…

Mr. Nguyen Chi Dung, Minister of Planning & Investment. Photo: Hoang Phong

Commenting, National Assembly Chairwoman Vuong Dinh Hue suggested that the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector still maintained growth in the third quarter and contributed to the overall growth of 0.35%. Therefore, it is necessary to clearly assess the supporting role of agriculture and how to promote agriculture in the coming time.

Meanwhile, the industrial and construction sectors were heavily affected by the 4th Covid-19 epidemic due to the implementation of strict social distancing measures, broken supply chains and dependence on the international market. Economic, logistics, freight transport, labor market faced many difficulties.

GDP of the construction industry in the third quarter decreased by 5.02%, bringing the 9-month increase to only 3.57%. Export growth of textile, leather and footwear industries slowed down. The phenomenon of supply chain disruption, labor chain, loss of customer orders has been happening. The service sector, the sector that has been hardest hit, is not easy to recover from.

The National Assembly Chairwoman emphasized that these are areas that need specific analysis, in order to have solutions for each area, they cannot be general. He noted that the solution for the last months of this year needs to clarify the prioritized content and at the same time carefully evaluate the 2022 context to have a suitable scenario.

Stated that the first important goal is to stabilize the macro-economy in association with social security, National Assembly Vice Chairman Nguyen Khac Dinh said that 2020-2021 is the most difficult period ever for the country. water. Therefore, it is necessary to have support packages with larger scale, stronger measures to recover the economy, stimulate investment demand, stimulate consumption demand and support people and businesses.

Synchronous fiscal and monetary policy, associated with administrative procedure reform, digital transformation, correction of responsible attitude of officials and civil servants, accelerated disbursement of public investment and promotion of social investment festival.

In addition, it is suggested that the Government examine, review and clarify some issues that have emerged over the past time for a report to the National Assembly such as the cost of Covid-19 test; personal charitable matters; the relocation of labor in the southern provinces, laborers returning to their homeland… Impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on disadvantaged groups who have difficulty accessing support policies and the implementation of national target programs on socio-economic development in ethnic minority and mountainous areas.

Concluding the discussion, Vice Chairman of the National Assembly Nguyen Duc Hai said that forecasting the situation in 2022 still faces many difficulties, so it is necessary to analyze specifically and have breakthrough solutions to solve. In which, attention is paid to the decreasing trend of foreign capital inflows into Vietnam, difficulties for domestic private investment, and reduced growth potential for recovery.

The implementation of supportive policies will put great pressure on the state budget, increase bad debts of credit institutions, increase unemployment and job losses, laborers are leaving the provinces and cities. In large cities, there is a local labor shortage in some areas.

The National Assembly Standing Committee unanimously submits to the National Assembly for consideration and decision the socio-economic goals, targets, tasks and solutions in 2022 and the state budget at the second session, expected to open. next October 20.

Mr. Minh


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What impact does the Evergrande shock have on Vietnamese real estate?

The debt bomb Evergrande (China) indirectly warns of potential risks of Vietnam’s real estate market in the face of difficulties caused by the pandemic.

At the talk show Looking from the Evergrande case to the future of Vietnam’s real estate marketAccording to experts, the debt crisis of hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese real estate tycoon is a warning lesson about potential risks for Vietnam because there are many similarities in the structure of the real estate market.

In the context that China’s real estate market development model has many similarities with Vietnam, experts believe that the Evergrande debt bomb does not directly affect but can indirectly warn the potential risks of the market. school.

An Evergrande project in Jiangsu province, China. Photo: Bloomberg

Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, a banking and finance expert, said that from the lessons of China’s Evergrande, Vietnam’s real estate market has a number of risks that need to be warned early. Like China, Vietnam allows real estate developers to raise capital from customers to sell houses formed in the future. Millions of Chinese people have paid deposits to buy houses and contributed money to Evergrande to develop housing projects in recent years.

If Evergrande goes bankrupt, millions of homebuyers who pay on schedule will be severely affected. Similarly, future home buyers in the Vietnamese market also bear a lot of risks when investors face financial difficulties.

Mr. Hieu analyzed that Vietnamese law allows real estate investors to raise capital to sell houses formed in the future. Currently, the Law on Real Estate Business 2014 has a provision to guarantee the sale of houses formed in the future to increase a protective barrier for homebuyers on paper.

However, up to this point, he said, it is not clear how many projects are guaranteed by the bank, the number of guarantee certificates issued, the number of successful guarantees and how many disputes over the issue. this temple. In the market, there have been cases where many projects announced that they had a bank guarantee, but when something went wrong, home buyers lost everything and were not protected.

Real estate market in District 2, East area of ​​Ho Chi Minh City.  Photo: Nhu Quynh

Real estate market in District 2, East area of ​​Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: Nhu Quynh

In addition, from China’s Evergrande shock, it shows that real estate enterprises are always facing the risk of exploding bad debt crisis and Vietnam, with the capital structure of real estate enterprises is not sustainable, also faces challenges. similar risks.

According to Mr. Hieu, the risks of the real estate industry always go hand in hand with the risks of the economy. The third quarter of Vietnam’s GDP dropped sharply due to the heavy impact of the fourth Covid-19 epidemic, showing that real estate can hardly rely on the support of the economy to recover after 2 years of struggling against the epidemic. In the third quarter, the whole economy froze, making these businesses exhausted in paying bank loans.

At present, real estate businesses may not be able to repay debts because they can still manage or be extended, but in 2022, when debt maturity approaches, many real estate businesses assets will face great financial pressure.

“Real estate bad debt will increase, and real estate enterprises’ massive issuance of bonds in the past time can also create unpredictable consequences. The real estate industry still uses short-term loans for medium and long-term investments as well as for long-term investments. At this time, it is not advisable to draw a rosy scenario and then shoot yourself in the foot,” warned Mr. Hieu.

Meanwhile, Dr. Dinh The Hien, a banking and finance expert, said: “The Evergrande debt bomb had a big impact on the Chinese market, but the incident did not affect the Vietnamese real estate market.”

The root cause of the Evergrande debt crisis, according to this expert, is that the Chinese government wants to actively control the real estate bubble in the host country, unrelated to the markets outside the territory.

According to Mr. Hien, Evergrande’s $300 billion debt crisis is set in the context that China and Vietnam have some similarities: selling houses formed in the future, most people prefer to accumulate assets from real estate and real estate. enterprises borrow debt, issue bonds to develop projects. These similarities only indicate that there is reason to be concerned about the psychological effects, but they are not significant.

Mr. Hien assessed, Vietnam does not have real estate companies raising capital by international bonds on a large scale like China. Vietnam’s monetary policy in the past 4 years has been well controlled and the State Bank has also strengthened supervision of real estate loans, with a roadmap to protect the safety of the commercial banking system.

This expert acknowledged that, although not affected by Evergrande’s debt crisis, Vietnam’s real estate market is experiencing low liquidity problems due to the heavy impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the recent lockdowns. occurred in the third quarter.

Mr. Hien forecasted that, in the fourth quarter, when the blockade is lifted and gradually reopened, the real estate market will need at least 6 months to gradually regain the recovery momentum in the condition that Vietnam’s economy soon accelerates and maintain stability.

Trung Tin


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The world is worried when China lacks electricity

China’s energy crisis not only threatens the country’s recovery, but also affects global trade.

China is in the midst of a major power shortage due to extreme weather, soaring energy demand and strict limits on coal use. This situation can last for months.

Several Chinese provinces have reported facing energy crises in recent weeks, including some seen as the country’s most important growth engines.

Guangdong, a manufacturing hub that accounts for $1.7 trillion, or more than 10% of China’s annual economic output, has been without electricity for more than a month. Businesses across the province are forced to close for several days each week. Some localities here warn that the need to allocate electricity may last until the end of this year.

A transmission line at electricity in Xinjiang, China. Photo: Xinhua.

Not only Guangdong, at least nine provinces reported similar problems, including Yunnan, Guangxi and the manufacturing hub Zhejiang. The situation forced local authorities to announce the limit of electricity supply in an area equal to Britain, Germany, France and Japan combined.

On Wednesday, China’s National Bureau of Statistics acknowledged that the power crisis also contributed to the slowdown in factory activity growth in June.

It is the worst energy shortage in China since 2011, when drought and soaring coal prices forced 17 provinces to restrict electricity use. Power plants don’t want to produce a lot of electricity when coal is expensive. At the same time, the country is also grappling with becoming a carbon-neutral economy by 2060.

That ambitious target with the world’s biggest coal consumer has led its coal mines to produce less, leading to higher prices, according to Yao Pei, chief strategist at Chinese brokerage Soochow. Securities. Along with that, inclement weather is hindering the operation of hydroelectricity.

Power outages could deliver a one-of-a-kind punch, derail China’s fragile recovery, and add trouble to global supply chains. “Having to allocate electricity certainly hurts the economy,” said Yan Qin, an analyst at Refinitiv.

Power shortages could reduce output in most sectors, including the key construction and manufacturing sectors. These businesses used nearly 70 percent of China’s electricity last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, and are a key driver of the recovery in 2021.

Guangdong-based Chengde New Material, one of the country’s largest stainless steel producers, announced it would close its operations for two days a week until electricity is no longer needed according to the allocation mechanism. again. The company expects production volume to decrease by 20%, or 10,000 tons of steel per month.

“Companies are not happy about this,” said Klaus Zenkel, president of EuroCham in South China. He said up to 80 of their member companies were affected by the shutdown order several days a week. Some companies have even rented diesel generators to keep them running.

In Yunnan, power shortages have reduced supplies of some metals such as aluminum and tin. The reduction in output coupled with possible delivery delays risks adding strain to global supply chains, according to Henning Gloystein, director of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group.

Guangdong also has an outbreak at the port, causing a backlog of goods that can take months to resolve. “Power shortages can force local manufacturers to reschedule operations, challenging delivery times and the rest of the supply chain,” said Lara Dong, Senior Director of Energy and Energy. renewable energy in China at IHS Markit, said.

According to experts, China is short of electricity due to many reasons, from high energy demand to extreme weather. In the first five months of the year, electricity consumption in South China exceeded pre-pandemic levels – up 21% year-on-year, according to grid operator China Southern Power Grid.

A hydroelectric dam in Sichuan, China.  Photo: Xinhua.

A hydroelectric dam in Sichuan, China. Photo: Xinhua.

Coal is still involved in generating about 60% of the country’s electricity. But the government is trying to reduce coal consumption. However, the harsh weather makes the capacity of hydroelectricity to produce less energy, while the heat increases the demand for electricity for cooling and cooling of the people.

China has also struggled to increase supply abroad. According to Henning Gloystein of Eurasia, the price of imported coal has more than doubled in the last year. Due to trade tensions with Australia, which supplies nearly 60 percent of its coal imports, Beijing imposed trade barriers on the country’s coal last year.

Since then, they have imported more coal from Indonesia and South Africa to compensate but not enough. “This has left some companies short of fuel for power plants,” Gloystein said, adding that it is difficult to get more supply in the short term from places like Indonesia.

Power outages are likely to continue for at least the next few months, especially as demand remains high during the hot summer months. Mr. Qin of Refinitiv said there were still “significant risks” that southern and central China would need to continue to allocate electricity, especially if the weather is hotter than usual.

The government also has other options. Gloystein suggested that China could remove barriers to Australian coal, although this option could expose Beijing to too much of a concession in the trade confrontation. Or authorities could be more lenient in some of their climate goals, by reopening power plants that have been shut down because of excessive pollution.

China has committed to controlling dirty energy and is trying to increase its use of renewable sources and reduce its use of fossil fuels. Therefore, according to Mr. Qin, the problem facing the country’s energy industry is how to both meet the growing electricity demand and achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions.

Session An (according to CNN)


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New jobs in the US increased sharply

Biden praised his recovery plan for working, as the number of new jobs created in May doubled compared to April.

The Labor Department reported on June 4 that the US added 559,000 new non-farm jobs in May, lower than the forecast of about 671,000 jobs according to economists surveyed by Dow. Jones.

However, this is more than double the 278,000 new jobs created in April. Last month, the unemployment rate also fell from 6.1% to 5.8%, better than the estimate of 5, 9%. President Joe Biden said it was no luck that his recovery plan was on track, helping the US through “the worst crisis in 100 years”.

“Jobs are up. Wages are up. Manufacturing is doing well. Growth is picking up. Health care coverage is up. Small business confidence is up. America is finally on top. way back,” Biden announced.

Hiring surged last month thanks to the hospitality and entertainment industry’s lead with 292,000 new jobs. Employment in the education sector of the local government also increased by 53,000, manufacturing by 23,000, but employment in construction decreased by 20,000.

Job board of a restaurant in Tampa, Florida, on June 1. Photo: Reuters.

However, compared to the peak in February 2020, the market is still 7.6 million fewer jobs. About 9.3 million people were classified as officially unemployed last month. “There are still a lot of people out of work, but there doesn’t seem to be much eagerness to go to work. More people will be hired if employers can find more people,” said Chris Low, Chief Economist at FHN Financial (New York), review.

According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, at least half of the population is fully vaccinated. That allows authorities across the country to lift Covid-19-related restrictions on businesses, which nearly crippled the economy in the early stages.

But the reopening of the economy is straining supply chains. Millions of workers, mostly women, remain at home as most schools have not yet transitioned to full-time face-to-face learning. Although vaccines are widely available, a portion of the population still does not want to be vaccinated. This is what labor experts say is preventing some people from returning to work.

Along with improving jobs, the average hourly income of Americans also increased 2% year-on-year in 2020, significantly higher than April’s 0.4%. However, economists do not appreciate it. this number, because it is assumed that the growth is due to the return to work, most of which are employees with high income positions.

Wage growth, on the other hand, strengthens some economists’ argument that higher inflation could be lasting, not temporary, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell envisioned. US inflation in April increased by 3.1%, the largest increase since July 1992. However, most economists do not expect the Fed to withdraw its stimulus measures anytime soon.

Session An (according to CNBC, Reuters)


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The transaction value of Vietnamese securities is close to that of Singapore’s

The transaction value of the Vietnamese stock market in April increased to 725 million USD, nearly equal to Singapore’s, according to HSBC.

The report “The numbers behind the growth story” of HSBC said that Vietnam is a frontier stock market that is being interested and liked.

In March 2021, 113,000 domestic trading accounts were newly opened, a record number, bringing the total number of accounts to 3.02 million. As a result, the market transaction value increased from 596 million USD in March to 725 million USD in April. A year ago, this figure was only 130 million USD.

According to this figure, HSBC believes that the current transaction value of the Vietnamese market is almost equal to that of Singapore and better than Malaysia and Indonesia. The VN-Index has risen 12.4% year-to-date, surpassed all major indices in the region and has surpassed the psychological resistance of 1,200 points for the first time, a level that has never been broken even in previous market price increases in 2007 and 2018.

The bank said that effective control of Covid-19 led to a strong recovery in economic growth as well as cash flow, which has been fueled by new individual investors.

Stock exchange at Yuanta floor in District 1, Ho Chi Minh City in March 2021. Photo: Quynh Tran.

With this picture, HSBC believes that it will be difficult for foreign investors to ignore the Vietnamese market for much longer, for 5 reasons. first, Vietnam offers an opportunity to balance risk and a favorable risk-reward in one of the most resilient growth economies. Monday, the market has higher liquidity.

TuesdayForeign ownership ratios (FOLs), which are a problem for foreign investors, are not currently a deterrent to trading. In the VN30 Index, 24 companies still have room for foreign investors.

Wednesday, shares that have reached the limit of foreign ownership can be purchased by paying a price difference. As these stocks generated strong profit growth but traded at cheaper valuations compared to other companies in Asia, the spread became not too large. Furthermore, policy reforms are underway, albeit slowly, but positively towards the market.

And finally is an attractive pricing. The 12-month VN-Index futures are trading at a PE of 15.1x, 5.3% less than the 5-year average, and the 12-month term at a PB of 2.5x, less 2.9% compared with the five-year average.

The VN Index increased 4.1% in April and 12.4% higher than the same period last year, surpassing the growth of global emerging markets (GEMs) (5.6%), Europe respectively. Asia except Japan (5.5%) and frontier markets (6.6%).

According to HSBC, this growth is being supported by internal and external factors, including inflows of foreign direct investment – strong FDI, improved production and consumption growth, in addition to more New investments enter the market. By the end of March, the number of stock investors accounted for 2.8% of Vietnam’s population.



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The northern coastal provinces attract interest in Vhome

Hung Yen, Thai Nguyen, Hai Phong … are localities attracting Vhome readers to seek information, showing the interest of many people in the peri-urban market.

According to data from the real estate data channel Vhome, Hanoi has always been the second most searched market after Ho Chi Minh City, since the beginning of the year. In the top 20 localities that received many searches, the Northern markets had 9 representatives, much more than the South (6 representatives) and the Central (5 representatives). Outside of Hanoi, the northern regions that are most interested by Vhome users are Hai Phong, Hai Duong, Son Tay, Bac Giang, Thanh Hoa, Bac Ninh, Ha Long …

Projects with the most readers visit include Vinhomes Ocean Park (Hanoi), new subdivisions of Ecopark urban areas (Hung Yen) such as Haven Park Residences, Ecopark Sky Oasis; Hanaka Paris Ocean Park (Bac Ninh); Danko City (Thai Nguyen) … The price range is commonly referred to in the range of 2-4.5 billion VND.

In fact, this data correctly reflects the trend of real estate investors in recent times. As noted by VnExpress The level of investor interest in the North market is higher than that of the Central and South. In addition, there is a tendency for investors in the North to “return home” instead of the South advancing as before. Northern investors are very strong to put money into local projects instead of pinning money in banks.

The attractiveness of the North market is also the driving force that many big companies in the South move their capital flows to Hanoi or neighboring provinces. For example, Nam Long Investment Joint Stock Company announced the Nam Long Hai Phong project located in the VSIP Hai Phong urban area with an area of ​​21 hectares, construction scale of 850 villas, commercial houses, townhouses and 2,200 apartments. apartment. According to the plan, the fourth quarter of 2020 will officially start the phase 1 project. By the end of 2021, it will be handed over, the 2-3 phases will start in 2021-2022.

Client is looking at a project in Hanoi in May 2020. Image: MIKGroup.

In April, Thai Nguyen province leaders had a meeting with Phu My Hung Development Company Limited. This business is looking to invest in and implement projects locally in areas such as industrial development, tourism and urban planning. The province has given a number of proposals for Phu My Hung to study for investment, including the Nui Coc lake tourism area. Businesses later surveyed at this location. Phu My Hung previously issued bonds to prepare capital for Phu Hung Khang Urban Area project in Hoa Binh. This project is about 405 hectares, expected to have more than 1,000 products, 2 schools, a hospital and a 75-room hotel.

Also with the “North-forward” trend, Masterise Group launched 6 apartment buildings in Vinhomes Ocean Park urban area, marking a return after 8 years of absence in the capital real estate market. In addition, although no project has been started, recent information from Hung Thinh Group says that after the restructuring, Hung Thinh Land will have a land fund of 4,500 hectares, including the names of Hanoi and other other.

During the recent meeting with the press and investors, market research expert Nguyen Quoc Anh affirmed that the cash flow in the real estate sector was pouring into the North. According to him, from the situation of investors in the North looking for opportunities in projects in the Central and the South, many people are now starting to focus on the local market, which is geographically close.

“The price level in Ho Chi Minh City increased in the period of 2018-2019, the legal factor in projects was more difficult and Covid-19 was the factor that caused investors to push cash flow to the Northern market. simultaneously poured into the ground land, peri-urban houses around the Hanoi market, especially residential land “, this person explained.

Tat Dat

Information Vhome real estate data channel here


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The US can grow faster than China thanks to 1,900 billion USD

China’s GDP has grown much faster than the US for decades, but this trend could be broken this year.

Immediately after Washington activated the $ 1,900 billion bailout package on March 11, economists quickly raised their forecasts for US growth. Goldman Sachs said that the US this year can grow 6.9% – the fastest since 1984. Morgan Stanley even more optimistic, with 7.3%.

Meanwhile, the Chinese government’s GDP growth target this year is only 6%. A Refinitiv survey of economists found that China could grow 8.4% this year.

This means that US GDP growth can be competitive, even surpassing China. This is an impressive achievement, given that the US is a much more saturated economy and has had significantly lower growth rates than China since after the financial crisis.

“We are going into a playing field where the US is very likely to be the leader,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.

Pedestrians on a street deserted by the pandemic in Massachusetts. Image: Reuters

For the average American, this optimism means stronger labor markets and better financial prospects after a catastrophic 2020. Morgan Stanley forecasts the US unemployment rate will fall below 5% by the end of this year and below 4% by the end of 2022.

The last time the growth rates of the US and China were close together was from the dotcom bubble. In 1999, the US grew 4.8%, while China was 7.7%, according to the World Bank (WB). Since 1976, there has not been a year that the speed of the US surpassed China.

Brusuelas recently raised its forecast for US growth to 7.2% this year, due to rescue packages and progress in pandemic control. He even said that he was not optimistic enough. “We could all be underestimating the upcoming boom. This could be the year of the greatest growth since the mid-20th century,” he said.

This is the exact opposite of the previous recovery. In 2010, when China bounced up after the financial crisis, China grew 10.6% – four times higher than the US. In 2019, before the arrival of Covid-19, China nearly tripled the growth of the US.

Of course, the above figures are just predictions. US recovery could lose momentum if the vaccination goes wrong. Virus variants can also create new obstacles. Most importantly, even if US growth is comparable to that of China this year, it will only happen once.

China is a younger economy, with an advantage in population and productivity. Therefore, the growth rate will be higher in the medium and long term. “If it happens, this is unlikely to happen again after 2021 because China’s growth potential is still higher than the US,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis. .

At least 2021, though, could be the year the US replaces China as the biggest driver of global growth. Oxford Economics forecasts that the US contribution to global growth in 2021 will be greater than that of China. This is something that hasn’t happened since 2005.

“The US economy will once again become a global engine. America will help pull the rest of the world out of the Covid crisis,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at Oxford Economics.

Daco forecasts US growth of 7% this year. He also wondered if economists were underestimating the rate of recovery, as it happened last summer, when the pandemic calmed down for a few months.

“People were amazed at the rate of recovery from this unprecedented shock. We could fall into that situation again,” Daco said. Quitting will be judged inappropriate. But right now, we have the right factors to believe that. “

The $ 1.9 trillion package is of course the key behind that optimism. After President Joe Biden was elected in November, many economists assumed that Washington could only pass a modest-sized package this year. However, this calculation changed when Democrats regained the Senate in January, thanks to Georgia. This has opened the door open for adoption of economic promotion policies.

The day Democrats won Georgia, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for US GDP growth to 6.4%, up from 5.9% previously and much higher than the average forecast of 3.9%. However, the company then only thought that the US would have a $ 750 billion stimulus package in February or March.

In fact, Washington activated the much larger package, at $ 1,900 billion. Including 1,400 USD for each American, 350 billion USD to support the local government and policies such as increasing unemployment allowance.

In addition to the rescue package, the economic outlook is also improved thanks to progress in pandemic control. Accelerated vaccination rates and falling deaths are sparking hopes that the restrictions that are holding the economy are lifted sooner than expected.

This will untie the huge demand of Americans, from eating food, watching movies, staying in hotels to flying. Many people have hoarded huge amounts of money just waiting for now. Morgan Stanley estimates US households have saved an additional $ 2,300 billion during the pandemic.

The bank forecasts the scale of the US economy will return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of March. “The reopening process is progressing well. Vaccination speed is accelerating and the job market is also accelerating,” the bank said. Economist here concludes.

Ha Thu (According to CNN)


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Rolls-Royce: From the historic handshake to the world’s best car – VnExpress

Henry Royce (1863-1933) comes from the opposite of Charles Rolls, who was born into a middle-class English family, who had to make money at the age of eight – something common in the 19th century but for him, it was special education.

Henry Royce’s family has 5 siblings, living in Huntingdonshire near Peterborough (UK) but soon moved to London when his father’s business failed. Since his father’s death in 1877, Henry Royce has made a living by selling newspapers, delivering telegraphs to support his life, while nurturing his dream of mechanics.

At the age of 14 (1978), Henry Royce returned to his hometown of Peterborough to apprentice at the Great Northern Railway Company with the help of a relative. This decision changed his life because when working with one of the great engineers that day, Henry Royce took every opportunity to train himself, even, he even spent free evenings. free to learn algebra, french and electrical engineering.

His ambition was then to work in a full-time engineering job. In 1884, with only 20 pounds saved, he teamed up with engineer friend Ernest Claremont, working around the clock to make electrical components such as doorbells and generators in a Manchester factory. It was during this time that Royce patented the bayonet light bulb, an invention still in use today. The company was then re-registered in 1899 as Royce Ltd, opening the next factory in Trafford Park, Manchester.

Royce’s interest in making cars arose when he bought a used French Decauville. He had a very instinctive desire for perfection and pursued a career philosophy that, until later, became the mainstay philosophy of Rolls-Royce: “Take the best out there and do it it’s better”. Therefore, when Henry Royce noticed many defects in the Decauville, he was determined to build a better car than that.


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Eurozone economy will speed up recovery from the middle of the year

ECB President said that the recovery of eurozone after recession caused by Covid-19 is slowing down, but will accelerate from the summer.

“We expect a recovery to accelerate from around mid-year, although uncertainties persist,” said European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde in an interview with Le Journal du Dimanche. , “But let me be clear: Economic activity won’t return to pre-pandemic levels before the summer of 2022.”

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. Image: Reuters

Eurozone countries are applying a blockade policy to prevent the spread of pandemic. GDP fell 5.1% quarter-on-quarter compared to the same period last year and is likely to continue to decline this quarter as the majority of services are still closed.

When monetary policy has been used almost completely, fiscal policy needs to be accelerated. Ms. Lagarde called on European leaders to approve an economic recovery fund worth 750 billion euros (903 billion USD). “This plan needs to be approved in time, for the European Commission to borrow as planned and to allocate this money,” she said.

However, she did not give further details on the ECB’s monetary policy. She only repeated her commitment that the ECB can continue to increase the asset repurchase quota if necessary and reduce it if the market is stable.

Ha Thu (Reuters)


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More than 50% of the annual ODA plan must be disbursed in one month

Less than a month to the end of the year, but still more than 50% of the ODA loan disbursement plan for the year has not been completed.

The above information was recently informed by Mr. Tran Xuan Ha. He cited data from the Ministry of Finance recently that in the first 11 months of the year, public investment disbursement from ODA loans was more than 6,300 billion VND, reaching nearly 345% of the planned capital assigned at the beginning of the year and 45.5% of the plan. adjusted plan (after cutting targets in a number of ministries and agencies).

By the end of November, only 4 localities with disbursement rates over 70% (adjusted estimate) are Hanoi, Binh Dinh, Tay Ninh, Ba Ria – Vung Tau. In addition, some ministries and branches have low disbursement rates such as the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism … or have committed to disburse up to 100% of ODA loans, but so far. still slow.

Deputy Minister Tran Xuan Ha. Photo: Ministry of Finance.

According to explanations from the units, the biggest problem causing the low disbursement rate of ODA and concessional loans is because there is no volume of capital construction completed so there is no payment record.

The slow disbursement is also partly explained by the impact of Covi-19 and flood disaster. However, even in the least impacted areas, withdrawal and application progress is slow.

Some problems leading to the slow disbursement of ODA loans such as, the project has been arranged with a capital plan, but procedures are being made to adjust the project, adjust the loan agreement, so there are not enough disbursement grounds.

Many donors request to use donor country consultants when implementing projects, but the quality of consultants is limited, not ensuring progress while donors’ views on consulting activities are not clear. .

In addition, a number of projects have problems with the mechanism, so the allocation or re-lending for capital allocation for implementation in 2020 cannot be determined (for example, the projects of VEC borrowed from JICA have not been approved by competent authorities. from re-lending to allocation).

According to the special account disbursement method of a number of donors such as WB, ADB, JICA, many project owners are also slow in completing documents.

The Ministry of Finance requires the project owner ministries and branches to urgently complete procedures for investment, construction, migration, resettlement and site clearance. In addition, it is necessary to definitely handle the shortcomings and problems of large investment projects, focusing on promoting the disbursement of investment projects with potential disbursement … The Ministry of Finance also recommends investors. Review funding reduces unnecessary approval procedures.

For projects that do not use up their assigned capital plans, the Ministry of Finance suggested early to have specific figures to cut and clarify which projects are completely disbursable in 2020, which projects can only disburse. a part.

Deputy Finance Minister Tran Xuan Ha affirmed that he would urge coordination to speed up effective expenditure control. The State Treasury is not allowed to consolidate dossiers, shorten the time for the effort control to not exceed one day, the time for processing capital withdrawal applications is only one day when there are full and valid dossiers.

In the long term, leaders of the Ministry of Finance also said that they are cooperating with the Ministry of Justice and relevant agencies and the Government Office to complete the amendment of Decree 97 on on-lending of ODA loans and water concessional loans. Government, ensuring simplification of process, appraisal procedures and on-lending contract signing.

Quynh Trang