France Télévisions flops audience with Roland-Garros

Posted on Oct 12, 2020 at 7:01 p.m.Updated Oct 12, 2020, 7:08 PM

The 2020 edition of Roland-Garros, which took place for the first time in the fall and without an audience, coronavirus obliges, will not remain in the annals of France Télévisions. While the number of viewers of the sporting event is almost stable on France 2 (to 1.5 million) and up on France 3 (to 1.7 million) over one year, the average audience share of the two channels ( respectively 14% and 9.2%), benchmark, has plunged compared to 2019 (17.1% and 11.4%), according to Médiamétrie.

Cumulatively for the two chains (12.7%), it is even at the lowest since at least 2010. “Did the period and the absence of an audience disconcert viewers? “, asks Philippe Nouchi, expert at Publicis Média. Even worse, “The fact that there are more viewers in front of their post in the fall, compared to May-June, worked against the audience share of Roland-Garros, this being calculated by dividing the audience of the event in relation to the total audience ”.

“The broadcast times were different, which makes comparisons limited. Several matches took place or ended in prime time on France 3, which we did not have in the past ”, puts Laurent-Eric Le Lay, sports director of France Télévisions into perspective. The prime time is however supposed to be a prime time … The competition is however stronger and France Télé, which does not market advertising screens in the evening, financially benefits little from these nocturnal sessions. A sign of the times, even the final saw its audience share drop by 2.5 points over one year.

France TV also highlights an indicator used more and more by the group, which points to the number of viewers who watched at least one minute of the tournament: 38.1 million viewers, or 8 million more than in 2019 and one higher since 2013. Since this year, Médiamétrie’s taking into account of the out-of-home audience (at the office, in bars, on smartphones, etc.) has nevertheless largely contributed to this. The group also ensures that its overall net advertising revenues are up 5%, around 10 million.

It was the last time that France Télévisions broadcast the tournament with Eurosport. From next year, Amazon Prime Video will broadcast, among other things, ten evenings.


Dutch operator KPN would interest Swedish investment fund EQT

Posted on Oct 12, 2020 at 6:49 PMUpdated Oct 12, 2020, 7:03 PM

Radio silence in Sweden and the Netherlands, after the indiscretion published by Bloomberg. Swedish investment fund EQT is considering buying Dutch telephone operator, news agency says KPN. Since then, neither of the two companies has denied, fueling speculation on both sides. EQT would only be preliminary reflections. The bottom “Discusses the feasibility of a transaction with potential advisers”, says Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the matter.

If he did decide to go ahead, it would be his biggest deal since its inception in 1994. Last week, before Bloomberg’s indiscretion, KPN was worth around € 9.4 billion. The company is down 15% on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange since the start of the year. Since then, KPN stock, the former public telecoms monopoly, climbed 4% on Friday and more than 6.6% on Monday. As for that of EQT, it took 0.74% on Friday in Stockholm, before seeing the curve reversed on Monday to lose 1.80%.

Political stake

Should this be seen as a sign of the future difficulties that Swedish society would have to overcome if it embarked on the adventure? What is certain is that it would need the green light from the Dutch government. Now this one “Has been stepping up initiatives over the past three years to protect the country’s strategic flagships, particularly in telecommunications”, explains Tom Kunzler, consultant specializing in the digital economy at the Dutch firm Public Matters.

The most appropriate initiative in the event of an EQT offer is a law, currently under consideration in the Dutch Senate, which would impose a “waiting period” of up to 250 days. And this, in order to allow the board of directors of a target company to organize resistance or mount a counter-offer.

In addition, the Dutch system allows a company like KPN to have its umbrella foundation acquire a sufficient number of shares to counter an offer it does not want. Thus, in 2013, the Mexican America Móvil had to give up acquiring KPN for 7.2 billion euros.

Growing competition

Active in France – notably via the third French water operator Saur as well as, since this summer, the nursing home sector -, EQT is already present in the Netherlands. It controls, among others, Delta Fiber, one of the main owners and operators of optical fiber telecommunications infrastructure. Add KPN “Might make sense”, according to KBC Securities analysts quoted by Reuters.

KPN faces increasing competition in the Dutch market. Its CEO, Joost Farwerck, took the reins in October 2019 with the mission of reducing expenses while investing in fiber optics and 5G.


iPhone 5G, HomePod Mini, AirPods Studio: what we expect from Apple’s keynote

Posted on Oct 13, 2020 at 7:30 a.m.Updated Oct 13, 2020 8:22 AM

It has been many years since a new iPhone aroused such expectations in financial markets. Tuesday evening, Apple must present all the latest versions of its flagship smartphone: the iPhone 12 mini, the iPhone 12, the iPhone 12 Pro and the iPhone 12 Pro Max.

With the health crisis and the delay in mass production that resulted from it, Apple was unable to lift the veil on its latest models during its traditional September keynote – depriving the 2020 edition of its star product – and did wait for iPhone aficionados until Tuesday’s conference, which will once again be 100% virtual.

In recent years, iPhone presentations had scarcely thrilled Wall Street, with the models bringing too little technological innovation. But for the first time, on Tuesday, iPhones will be compatible with 5G, while the antennas of telecom operators are blooming and starting to broadcast all over the world. Enough to brighten up the financial markets.

Low rate of re-equipment for iPhone users

“We expect this fall’s launch to be the most significant iPhone-related event in recent years.”, estimates Katy Huberty (Morgan Stanley) in an analyst note in which she judges that Apple should be able to sell 220 million units of its iPhone line in its fiscal year 2021 [Apple clôt ses comptes annuels en décalé fin septembre, NDLR]. That is an increase of more than 22% compared to the current year, according to calculations by the American bank.

An optimism shared for several months by many analysts who believe that these new iPhones should allow Apple to trigger a “super cycle” of sales of its cash cow product which has lost its luster a little recently – in 2019, the iPhone had accounted for 54% of Apple’s revenue, down from 62% a year earlier.

The reason ? The low rate of re-equipment of iPhone users in recent years, which suggests that a number of them expected a real technological contribution for this. The 5G compatibility of the iPhone 12 range would therefore come at the right time. The Bernstein firm estimates that nearly 180 million iPhone owners will replace their model in the next twelve months.

Towards a new keynote in November

As usual, Apple has not been in the lead in terms of technological advancement; other rivals (Samsung, Huaweiand even Google) entered the 5G smartphone market before him. A slight delay which the Californian company has historically never suffered, commercially, when launching a new product.

Moreover, at Apple, the “hardware” festivities would not be over yet at the end of the year since a third consecutive keynote should take place in November. On the menu, this time, the presentation of the first Mac equipped with in-house processors, the “Apple Silicon”.

In the meantime, a new HomePod Mini should also be unveiled during Tuesday night’s keynote where an unknown remains: the launch or not of AirPods Studio, the expected first wireless headphones designed by Apple. [qui possède aussi la marque Beats, NDLR]. A keynote from the Cupertino group without surprise – or, at least, without uncertainty – would not be a real keynote.


iPhone 12, headphones, HomePod Mini: follow Apple’s keynote live

Posted on Oct 13, 2020 at 6:31 PMUpdated Oct 13, 2020 6:35 PM

The disappointment of September should be quickly erased for Apple aficionados, who await the presentation of the new iPhone every year. Because except surprise, the Cupertino company, affected by production delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, will unveil the latest generation of its flagship smartphone.

Features, compatibility with 5G, price… This new Apple keynote will be scrutinized by users, but also by investors. Like other tech giants, the American company has taken advantage of the health crisis, crossing the historic threshold of 2,000 billion dollars in capitalization in August. Apple shares also took more than 6% on Monday, symbolizing expectations around Tim Cook’s announcements.

>> Follow Apple’s announcements live

> What we expect from the keynote on Tuesday

Apple must present all of the latest versions of its flagship smartphone: the iPhone 12 mini, the iPhone 12, the iPhone 12 Pro and the iPhone 12 Pro Max.

> A first audio headset for Apple?

The apple brand could soon present its first headphones and a new version of its HomePod connected speaker. It has stopped selling the products of its competitors Sonos, Logitech and Bose in its stores.


With its new range of iPhones, Apple wants to lead to a massive renewal

Posted on Oct 13, 2020 at 9:49 amUpdated Oct 14, 2020 at 1:20 am

This is the start of a new era for the iPhone ”, ” an immense moment “, ” unprecedented “… It is with blows of hyperbole that the leaders of Apple presented four new models of iPhone operating for the first time with the 5G Tuesday during a virtual conference. With this new range, called iPhone 12, and prices ranging between $ 699 and $ 1,099, the Cupertino company hopes to trigger a renewal cycle of a level never seen since the iPhone 6 in 2014.

Tim Cook emphasized the benefits of 5G but also highlighted the many other innovations of his devices, the interest of this new mobile connection standard being limited due to a restricted deployment. ” 5G will bring new levels of performance for downloads, uploading, more responsive video games and real-time interactivity ”, said the CEO of the company, which markets its first 5G models more than a year after rivals Samsung and Huawei. Apple notably announced the launch of League of Legends, a very popular PC game in esports competitions, on iPhone.

5G limited

In the United States, new phones, which will be available in the coming weeks, will support millimeter waves. These operate on the 5G bands with the highest frequency… which are present in only a handful of cities, including New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. The CEO of Verizon, the first American mobile operator, invited on stage, has promised to extend this standard to 60 cities by the end of the year.

After T-Mobile in December and AT&T this summer, it announced the launch of a network accessible by 200 million inhabitants in 1,800 American cities in a less powerful version, closer to 4G. ” The majority of 5G today offers download speeds only 40% faster than 4G. 5G with seven times faster speeds will not be available until 2022 “, estimates the investment fund Loup Ventures.

Analysts are however optimistic that sales take off quickly in Asia, where the deployment of 5G is more advanced than in the United States and on the Old Continent. ” 90% of South Korea’s population is covered by 5G. In China, 5G devices are expected to represent more than 50% of smartphones sold next year ”, prognosis Stephen Mears, analyst at Futuresource Consulting.

New high-performance chip

Apple is counting on the other novelties of its range to seduce its many customers who have not renewed their smartphone for more than three years – this is the case for 40% of them, according to the Wedbush bank.

The iPhone 12 has an in-house chip with a very fine 5nm engraving, a first for a smartphone, with increased performance for photos and video games. The new models are also stronger thanks to a glass reinforced with nano-ceramic crystals, which quadruples the resistance to falls. The firm is finally reviving the ‘MagSafe’, a magnetic hanging system launched in 2006, which notably facilitates wireless charging.

More reasonable prices

Tim Cook is also continuing its strategy of returning to more reasonable prices, which has enabled it to increase its market share from 11.8% to 14.8% over one year, according to Canalys figures for the last half of the year, in particular thanks to on the release of a new iPhone SE starting at $ 399 in April. The iPhone 12 Mini, a 5.4-inch model – the smallest and lightest ever made by the company – will start at $ 699, the same price as the entry-level iPhone 11 last year.

Apple, however, continues to offer two high-end models starting at $ 999, equipped with better quality cameras and lidar (laser beams) in order to accelerate augmented reality experiences (mapping a room for example) and reinforce the night catches. Apple is orienting them this time more towards professional photographers and videographers than luxury amateurs.

His decision not to raise prices further could explain the stock’s 3% pullback on Tuesday, with analysts fearing that the costs of making 5G models will erode margins. Apple has cut costs, however, by removing corded chargers and headphones from its new products, which could also boost sales of its AirPods and wireless chargers.

The firm, lagging behind Amazon and Google in smart speakers, also announced the launch of a $ 99 HomePod Mini, three times cheaper than its current speaker and similar to the price of its competitor’s Echo. Seattle. According to IDC, the firm has only 1% market share in this segment.


Tricolor running apps in the offensive phase

Posted on Oct 14, 2020 at 8:00 a.m.

For running, 2020 will remain an ambivalent year: on the one hand, the number of practitioners increased sharply during confinement; on the other hand, major races have been canceled or postponed because of the Covid-19 pandemic. In this unprecedented context, several French applications dedicated to this discipline are doing well and strengthening their position with their community.

This is the case for example of Runnin’City, which publishes courses for runners allowing them to visit a city at the same time as they run. Obviously, this approach closely linked to tourism encountered difficulties at the start of the crisis. The number of sessions dropped from 1,070 to 750 per day before and after confinement. And the municipal elections, the second round of which was also delayed, penalized the start-up which sells its routes to local communities. Even so, Runnin’City saw a 32% increase in orders in the first three quarters of 2020 compared to the entire previous year. “In France, we asked our users not to run because our routes encouraged them to go beyond the authorized kilometer during confinement, explains its CEO, Olivier Lebleu. But this was not the case elsewhere and for example we sold 30 courses to the city of Brussels, then 18 to Orléans once the restrictions were lifted. “

International DNA

It was by taking an interest in neighboring countries that the Lyon nugget came across Sport City Tour, a Swiss company that offers fitness courses in 17 cities. “We had the opportunity to acquire it by chance and we did, says the entrepreneur. This operation allows us to open this country with already several references. “ At the same time, the company, whose revenues should reach 500,000 euros in 2020, is developing white-label apps for brands, an activity that accounts for 30% of its turnover.

On the side of RunMotion Coach, the confinement also had a negative impact on the activity, which does not prevent it from completing this month a fundraising of 300,000 euros from business angels. “Without the Covid-19 crisis, we would have two or three times as many users, believes Romain Adam, co-founder with his twin brother Guillaume and Paul Waroquier. We are going to take advantage of this financial transaction to develop marketing in the United States, the United Kingdom and Spain where we already have users. “ Because the international is one of the strengths of the young Savoyard growth. Its personalized coaching app is already well known there through partnerships developed with races that took place abroad and where no major player has yet succeeded in breaking through.

Develop sources of income

RunMotion Coach cultivates its difference thanks to training plans adapted to the physical capacities of the runners, to their objectives, but also to the time available. When preparing for a long race, active people often have great difficulty following the sessions defined beforehand and can quickly lose pace. In addition, and for paying subscribers, the start-up offers a conversational robot that supports them according to their needs.

The digitization of support is also the credo of Running Care that targets injured runners. After having been part of the Adidas incubator at Station F, it begins its fundraising (1 million euros targeted) to develop abroad. With 70,000 subscribers and 10,000 active every month, it is also starting to expand its income through partnerships with sports stores that offer the app to their customers. With its class 1 medical device certification, it can move forward and deploy a device beyond injury, for example by including prevention through telephone advice.


French cinema has more admissions than last year

Posted on Oct 14, 2020 at 3:55 p.m.Updated Oct 14, 2020, 4:07 PM

Really, life is simpler without competition. The situation of French cinema remains extremely worrying due to the health crisis. But the absence of American blockbusters in theaters means that the tricolor seventh art, thanks to films like “Les Jokes de Toto” or “Antoinette dans les Cévennes”, has made more entries since the deconfinement. A paradox, but also an achievement, as pessimism was in order.

According to the National Center of Cinema (CNC), French films made 13% more admissions in cumulated in July and August compared to the same months last year, when American films saw their attendance drop by 88 %, and those of other nationalities by 28%. According to Comscore, French films did better than the average of the previous five years between July 14 and the end of August 2020, peaking at 70% more than usual for the week of July 29.

Good “line-up”

And as Eric Marti, director of Comscore in France explains, since the success of “Tenet”, the American film by Christopher Nolan released on August 26 and which has accumulated 2.2 million admissions, has dwindled, “French films are getting back on their feet” and are starting to make more entries again than last year. With films like “Adieu les cons” by Albert Dupontel, and “Aline” by Valérie Lemercier, upcoming releases are promising.

Overall in September 2020, according to CNC figures, French films achieved a 56% market share of 5.5 million admissions, or 3.1 million, against 44% of 11.2 million. last year (a figure at the very top of the range for the last ten years, according to the CNC’s 2019 report), or 4.9 million.

In any case, in terms of market share, the French cinema accumulates exceptional performances, according to the calculations of Comscore, a little different from those of the CNC. Basically in July, August and September, French cinema went above 45-55% this year, against 20% to 40% on average over 2015-2019. American cinema has gone from 55% to 75% to 27% -35%. It should also be noted that the share of foreign films other than American, for which France is one of the rare countries where success is possible, has jumped by ten points this year.

Global releases for blockbusters

As the postponement of the release of the new James Bond until April 2021 shows, American studios aiming for global releases are extremely reluctant to release their film this year. Much to the anger of theater operators, the release on their platform becomes a default option, as shown by that of “Soul”, the promising latest Pixar, on Disney + at Christmas.

Suddenly, French films are not only the default choice but they are better exposed and for longer. There were more than 9 French films at 500 copies this summer, compared to 2 last year. “The career of ‘Antoinette in the Cévennes’ shows that giving time to word of mouth pays off”, notes a specialist. Arts and testing rooms benefit from the phenomenon a little more than multiplexes. Although in smaller proportions than in a country like the United Kingdom, where multiplexes have taken more drastic closure measures.

Pay attention to the location of the rooms

“This situation is favorable for distributors and producers of French films who benefit from a good sale of tickets and the reopening of the CNC support accounts., explains Serge Siritzky, from the blog But beware, the cinemas are in a catastrophic situation and many can only last until the end of the year with public support: if this is not renewed, many screens will close and French cinema will suffer. just as much as American cinema. “

It should be added that the air gap of confinement from March will probably not be compensated for and that for the overall cinema financing system, the plunge in cinema attendance (today around 50%) will inject less than revenue from ticket tax.


Laurent Habib resigns from the presidency of the AACC

Posted on Oct 14, 2020 at 5:45 p.m.Updated Oct 14, 2020, 7:02 PM

This is a first for the advertising industry and undoubtedly a new chapter in its history. Following an extraordinary board of directors held on Tuesday evening, Laurent Habib, president of the Association of Communication Consulting Agencies (AACC) since 2017, re-elected in 2019, resigned against a background of accusations of sexual harassment, as revealed Wednesday the magazine “Strategies”.

Questioned since Saturday in several testimonies on the Instagram account #Balance Ton Agency, reporting testimonies of harassment, the leader explains his gesture : “I preferred to leave to preserve my dignity and preserve my freedom of speech. I’ve been criticized for things that are true, even though they are dated and heavy joke. I ask forgiveness of the women whom I could embarrass or hurt. But we are obviously in situations that do not relate to the legal but to morality and disapproval.

In a statement, the board of directors of the AACC “Takes note and understands this personal decision guided by the concern that Laurent Habib has today to protect his relatives, his collaborators and the AACC. “

The departure of the president of the sector union is seen as a fracture, even appearing to open a new chapter in the history of advertising. Already, in 2018, the #Metoo of the advertisement had opened a first breach, without real concrete progress. This is the first time that a leader of this caliber has resigned for acts of harassment.

After starting his career at RSCG Public, Laurent Habib, close for a while to DSK like many politicians, spent twenty-two years in the Havas group. There, he managed the corporate communication agency Euro RSCG C & 0 (now Havas Paris), and took on the role of CEO of Havas France. In 2012, strategy differences with Vincent Bolloré, the group’s current president, prompted him to create his own Babel agency, focused on advertising creation, events and influence.

Anonymous activism

But the departure of Laurent Habib is -also- a fracture because it seems to give a kind of sesame to “A new form of anonymous activism carried out on social networks”, according to the terms of “Strategies”, against sexual harassment in an agency. And it is clear that this activism is effective. Created on September 25, the #Balancetonagency Instagram account wasted no time in overflowing with testimonies reporting both sexist jokes and inappropriate touching.

“Behind #Balancetonagency” hides a vigilante or an anonymous vigilante who names men who are sexually or morally violent ”, specifies Christelle Delarue, who led the #Metoo for advertising two years ago, with her movement “Les Lionnes”. “We support his fight but we are not behind the process. “

Laurent Habib is the second manager, after that of the Braaxe agency, to be singled out by the #Balancetonagency account and to choose to withdraw, while other names of agencies and leaders are starting to circulate.

Faced with this surge, Christelle Delarue regrets that #Balancetonagency ”points out the problems but does not do all the work of transformation, explanation of the complainant’s journey and the necessary moral redress. On the other hand, the violence of #Balancetonagency constitutes an important step in the liberation of the industry. Since 2018, the testimonies have continued to add up and we have two hundred people from fifty agencies who could file a complaint today. “

It is now up to the AACC to appoint another leader, while the burning issues – ecology and the threat of more restrictive legislation on polluting products and industries, the financial impact of the second wave of Covid on agencies … – are piling up at the offices at 40 boulevard Malesherbes.


“The Story” most listened to news podcast in September

Posted on Oct 14, 2020 at 3:39 p.m.

Thank you ! Thank you ! Thank you ! You were more than 628,000 to listen to “The Story” in September in France, after one month of August when the figures of downloads attested that you had not left us. Thanks to your loyalty, the “Echos” news podcast is second in the top 10 podcasts certified by the ACPM (The Alliance for Press and Media Figures) and first among news podcasts. With our listeners around the world, our program totals 771,000 listeners.

“The Story” is the economic and financial information deciphered by the newspaper editorial staff at Pierrick Fay’s microphone, in 20 to 30 minutes. A long time that we wanted to give to the news to discover, with those who deal with it on a daily basis, all its details and, sometimes, its behind the scenes.

Since its launch in May 2019, you have followed us over the more than 340 episodes produced. From the story of the Notre-Dame fire, to the soap opera of a presidential campaign unlike any other in the United States, through the film of the incredible Ghosn affair and the crossing together of a confinement in the heart of ‘an unprecedented health crisis, here are the most popular recent episodes.

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An ally of Western Europe through NATO, the Turkish president is dangerously agitating geopolitics by the incursions or implications of his country, as in Nagorno-Karabakh. Should we fear Recep Tayyip Erdogan or not?

Brexit: the crazy strategy (09/15/2020)

When Boris Johnson launches a new challenge to the European Union by still waving the possibility of a “no deal”.

Production tax, star of the recovery plan (09/09/2020)

The challenges of one of the flagship measures of the 100 billion euro recovery plan announced by the government.

Veolia, in water up to the neck (08/09/2020)

Understand the reasons for Suez’s resistance to Veolia’s takeover bid and the challenges of bringing the two service giants together.

Apple, the firm worth 2,000 billion (03/09/2020)

Decryption of the phenomenal success of Apple on the stock market, the largest listed company in the world.

How to listen to and subscribe to The Story?

Find all the episodes of The Story on

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Publicis achieves a better than expected third quarter

Posted on Oct 15, 2020 at 7:30 a.m.

This Thursday morning before market close, the world’s third largest communications group (Publicis Conseil, Leo Burnett, Sapient, Epsilon, etc.) kicked off the financial results of the communications sector, revealing better than expected figures for a third quarter, again, atypical. As the market began to lift its head and dream of a “year zero”, the Covid-19 epidemic has picked up again, leaving new uncertainties in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Publicis Group posted a sharp decline in net income of 9.1%, to 2.3 billion euros between July and September. But the organic performance of turnover shows a decline of 5.6%, where analysts had expected a drop of 8.9% over the period. Above all, the world’s third-largest communications group reveals net income up 2.7% to 7.1 billion euros for the first nine months of 2020.

The American market is resisting

Long considered to be “the Achilles heel” of Publicis, the North American market, at the origin of 60% of the net income of the whole and already rebounding in the first and second quarters, gave the group a whiff oxygen. “Our organic growth in the United States suffered a decline limited to 2.4% in the third quarter, again above the forecast for a decrease in investments of 7% in the market”, underlines the Chairman of the Publicis Management Board, who sees it as a sign of virtual stability.

The outcome of the November 3 presidential election and who, Donald Trump or Joe Biden, will dominate US fiscal policy for the next four years remains the unknown. Arthur Sadoun kicks in touch: “The only impact the American election will have on Publicis is the one it will have on the country in general and it is very difficult to predict at the moment. But the major competitions have resumed and we have just won those of Kraft Heinz in media and Reckitt Benckiser in creation and media. “

Fourth quarter under pressure

A cloudless landscape? Not quite. Publicis is proving the resilience of its model in its key region: the United States. Admittedly, the group recorded only a 9% decrease in its organic growth in Europe, while the consensus was counting on a drop of 13.6%. Likewise, in Latin America, the world’s third largest group suffered a drop of 14.8%, where analysts feared a plunge of 16.4%. In this region devastated by the coronavirus, the drop in net income was even 33.3% in the third quarter.

But in Asia-Pacific, a key economic zone, the drop in organic growth is stronger than expected, reaching 9.2% where the markets were watching only 5%. Even though China has reached near stability, according to the group.

Hence, once again, the extreme circumspection of the Chairman of the Management Board of Publicis: “We believe that the relatively solid trends in our activity should continue through the end of the year and allow us to post an operating margin rate in 2020 which is slightly higher than expected. With the current resurgence of the pandemic and the implementation of new restrictions, however, we must remain cautious about our performance in the fourth quarter, which could be more impacted and therefore lower than that of the third quarter. “